Hong Kong was once the only gateway to the Mainland market. A vital link between East and West. Between developed and less-developed nations. Between capitalist and reforming economies. Between China and everywhere else. Today，Hong Kong no longer holds this privileged position. The reality is that Hong Kong hasn’t held it for quite some time. Long before the ink was dry on China’s WTO agreement，companies were choosing to bypass Hong Kong and go directly to Beijing，Shanghai and elsewhere in the Mainland. Of course，a significant number of companies were also still coming to Hong Kong to take advantage of the city’s close geographic，economic，political and cultural ties to the Mainland. And as you are aware they continue to come.
We also know that China is in the midst of two transitions at one time：from a command to a market economy and from a rural to an urban society. And we know that the country faces a number of challenges：allocating incoming capital effectively；reforming state-owned enterprises；creating more jobs；spreading wealth more evenly；reducing bureaucracy；and eliminating corruption. And now，living up to the commitments and the expectations of WTO membership can be added to this list.
Finally，we know that China has changed a great deal in a relatively short period of time. Thirty years ago，US President Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger made a historic journey to China. Their seven-day trip concluded with the signing of the Shanghai Communiqué inside the Grand Hall of the Jinjiang Hotel in Shanghai. A couple of weeks ago，Dr Kissinger returned to the Jinjiang to deliver a speech commemorating the events of 1972.
I do not know if Dr Kissinger took the time to explore the surrounding area. If he did，he would have possibly seen the nearby theatre that regularly plays the latest offering from Hollywood. He would have probably come across the American fast food outlets or the Italian designer clothing store just down the block. Before crossing the street，he would have likely had to wait for a line of Japanese cars to pass and perhaps even the bus emblazoned with a larger-than-life Winnie the Pooh. And if he stayed out late enough，he would have undoubtedly been able to stroll back to the hotel under the colorful neon lights advertising German cellular phones. In short，he would have definitely seen a very different China today than the one he saw 30 years ago.
第一章 Stay Hungry，Stay Foolish (3)
Existing uncertainties
The second area I want to focus on is what we know we do not know. In other words，the uncertainties related to the further opening of China’s market.
Clearly，we do not know exactly how numerous industries will evolve. And it is a lack of advanced knowledge that is prompting much speculation. In the area of financial services for example，some predict that many of China’s domestic banks will have a limited life span once the market is fully opened up in five years time.
Personally，I do not share this view. I think they will be very strong competitors. Partly because they are in the advantageous position of knowing the marketplace. Partly because they have national networks that are impossible—not to mention impractical—to match. And partly because they have a strong base of customers and are becoming increasingly modern. Consider the Mainland’s largest bank，the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. It recently announced that it has more than 10，000 corporates and 1.8 million individuals using its online banking services. But the main reason I think domestic banks in China will be strong competitors：they are very fast learners.
Another thing we know we do not know—and this specifically relates to Hong Kong—is the indirect benefits that will flow from a more open market in China.
For example，if mainland investors are allowed to invest their foreign exchange holdings in Hong Kong，the SAR’s stock market would clearly benefit. Hong Kong’s position as a fund raising centre for Mainland companies would also be enhanced. We know this idea is under consideration. We also know we do not know when it may happen.
Likewise，we know that if banks in Hong Kong are permitted to accept RMB deposits，the SAR’s status as an international financial centre and as the premier regional financial centre will be enhanced even further. Once again we know this idea is being considered，but we do not know when it may happen.
At the outset of the 1972 talks，Dr Kissinger reportedly told his Chinese hosts：“The good thing about our relationship is that we want nothing from each other.”
Chairman Mao is said to have promptly disagreed，noting：“If I had wanted nothing from you，I wouldn’t have invited you. And if you wanted nothing from me，you shouldn’t have come.”
Similar sentiments apply to the WTO agreement. If China did not have something to gain，it would not have joined the WTO. Nor would it have made，as some observers suggest，commitments that are far more reaching than any previous membership applicant has. Likewise，foreign companies would not be flocking to and expanding their operations in China if they thought there was nothing to gain. Nor if they thought there were no profits to be made.
In closing，let me make one final observation about Hong Kong and the impact of China’s entry into the WTO.
